Energy Market Outlook – September 15, 2017


Author: Jason Scarbrough

As we and natural gas speculators shift focus to the winter – a La Nina would be a welcome change from some of the warmest consecutive winters in recent memory for the bullish speculators and producers. This will put a great deal of focus towards the end of injection season storage levels – that currently stand at 3,311 BCF which is 179 BCF less than from this same week last year and 43 BCF above the five-year average.  The surplus of the 5 year average has been shrinking all summer and totals will likely fall below 3.9 TCF (possibly below the 5yr avg) to end the season. A cold winter could reset the game as far as the abundance of supply and low pricing we have enjoyed for the past many years.

We will continue to keep an eye on production and weather before making any kind of definitive call – for now this is intriguing, but it is weather and who knows what will happen a month from now.

Currently, the NOAA shows a 55-60% chance of a La Nina forming this fall/winter.

Click here for more information regarding La Nina.